Shifting Baselines Syndrome in Climate Change
How human adaptability has anesthetized us to the reality of the climate crisis
Illustration by Alicia Hayden (@aliciahaydenwildlife)
“Shifting Baselines Syndrome” was a term first coined in 1995 by marine biologist Dr. Daniel Pauly in his article ‘Anecdotes and the shifting baselines syndrome in fisheries’. Although first theorised in relation to fisheries and marine wildlife, Pauly’s concept has since been applied to wider environmental conversation, including the all-important discussion around the climate crisis.
Shifting baselines syndrome is when drastic environmental change happens over generations, rather than in just one lifetime. This means that each new generation inherits a lowered expectation of the environment’s conditions and welfare, as they are unaware of the environmental loss that predates them. This cycle continues, ignorant generations fail to recognise the severity of the environmental loss and destruction and, therefore, little action is made to prevent further damage.
This syndrome, also referred to as “generational amnesia,” has brought us face to face with the irreversible and relentless effects of the climate crisis. As key data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights, ‘Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.”
In his 2020 article, ‘The scariest thing about global warming (and Covid-19)’, David Roberts reflects, “For as long as I’ve followed global warming, advocates and activists have shared a certain faith: When the impacts get really bad, people will act.” For too long we have relied on the belief that people will be spurred into action once we reach an ecological “rock bottom.” However, if we are collectively caught in a cycle, unable or unwilling to recognise the extent of our ecological destruction and loss, the turning point which Roberts believes will come “when the impacts get really bad” will forever remain in an unattainable future. Arguably, we reached “rock bottom” years ago—now we’re just dwelling, adapted and ignorant, in a state of ecological crisis.
With the rate at which we are now seeing the impacts of the climate crisis, we can begin to see generational amnesia being superseded by personal amnesia; the adaptability of the human species which has kept us from extinction has anesthetized us to the realities of our destruction. The most immediate example being the Covid-19 pandemic; since the moment we had to close our doors to the outside world, questions of what the “new normal” will look like have been passed between colleagues, family members and news presenters. In the midst of an urgent climate crisis we are faced with a global pandemic that has killed millions and we look to the future with one question, “how will we find normalcy in this latest climate-crisis-induced catastrophe, how will we be anesthetized to its damages?”
Instead of searching for a reimagining of the normalcy of our destructive past, we need to take this opportunity to reflect on our mistakes and embrace positive changes on a microscopic, habitual and personal level. We need to break free from our blinding desire to adjust and acknowledge the reality we are facing.
How can we do this?
If shifting baselines syndrome relies on systemic ignorance, let’s educate ourselves, our loved ones and our communities on the ecological loss our environment has suffered. With documentaries, such as Netflix’s Seaspiracy and David Attenborough’s A Life on Our Planet, blurring the boundary between environmental education and entertainment, we have never before been in a better position to put an end to the destruction of shifting baselines syndrome.
What’s more, advancing technology has catalysed a multitude of groundbreaking projects which will enable us to better understand our impact on the environment, both retrospectively (dating back to the beginning of the Anthropocene) and prospectively. One such project is John D. Sutter’s film Baseline. Setting out with a goal to combat shifting baselines syndrome, Sutter’s project, with support from Dr. Daniel Pauly, will film four locations every five years until 2050, to document the environmental change that occurs over the lifespan of the project.
However, our efforts do not stop there. It is crucial that we use our education and awareness to fuel our positive action. This does not have to be on a global scale - we need to reflect upon and embrace the positive change we can make as individuals and as a community.
Research has proven that feeling things are out of control causes a lack of action, whereas, feeling like a part of a community effort makes it much more likely for positive change to happen. With a simple internet search you will be able to find endless lists of projects and community groups creating positive change in your area, which you can get involved in.
The first step to combating shifting baselines syndrome is recognising the issue and fighting our internal biases. Now we need to work both as individuals and communities to cast aside notions of “rock bottom”, baselines and waiting. The time to do our part in restoring the natural world is now. We cannot wait any longer.
Find groups and projects within your community who are doing great work:
Friends of the Earth: “Our local groups tackle all sorts of issues affecting people and the environment where they live. They have a fantastic track record of defending things that we care most about. Whether that’s fending off huge dirty energy projects like coal mines and fracking - or restoring natural habitats so that nature can thrive.”
Greenpeace: “Across the UK, groups of Greenpeace volunteers work locally to solve global problems. Amazing people from all walks of life band together to campaign for a green and peaceful world, and anyone can join in.”
Little and impactful changes you can make:
Rewilding Urban Spaces: “Rewilding your garden is perhaps one of the easiest ways you can help local insect and other invertebrate populations, as well as having a bit of fun outside in nature at the same time. To re-wild your garden, you only need to step out in nature in your closest wild space to derive inspiration on how you de-urbanise your garden and make it a green space.”
Six tips to help you eat more sustainably: “Each one of these changes is equally important. We have measured the results of our research against our six Livewell principles to see if they work, and they do. This is exciting as the messages are simple, clear and easy for everyone to do.”
The Importance of Pollinators: “If you have a garden try to incorporate bee-friendly planting, leave areas to overgrow and provide a source of water. If you live in an urbanised area try to provide light relief to passing pollinators with window boxes planted up with seasonal flowers.”
Katie Stote
Katie is a recent English graduate and currently works at The University of Plymouth as a Project Officer in the Research and Innovation department. Her passion lies in education and environmentalism and she plans to combine these two passions to encourage people and communities to make small but impactful changes, as we work together toward a more sustainable future.