COP26: Good COP or Bad COP?
The world is now facing a climate emergency. This global problem requires a global solution. One way of coordinating worldwide action is through the Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP) summits. The 26th COP summit (COP26) is taking place in Glasgow at the end of this month.
But what is COP26? Why is it important? And will it be a success?
Photo credit: Unsplash; Fredrika Carlsson
What is COP26?
Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP) is a climate summit hosted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC) intended to accelerate global action to combat the climate change crisis. World governments have been meeting under the COP banner since 1995 to forge this response. This year, COP26 will be taking place. It will be hosted by the UK, in partnership with Italy, between the 31st of October-12th November 2021. More than 190 world leaders are expected to arrive in Glasgow, with tens of thousands of negotiators, government representatives, businesses, and citizens. This event is believed by many to be crucial in being ‘the world’s last best chance to get runaway climate change under control.’
Why is it important?
The Earth’s natural climate has always been changing. However, the rate at which it is changing has increased alarmingly, due to anthropogenic activity releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This causes catastrophic environmental destruction, otherwise known as climate change. Ice caps melt, corals bleach and forests burn. Annual COP summits provide an opportunity for world leaders to come together and help solve this problem on a global scale.
The COP21 summit in Paris was the first COP talk where every country agreed to work together to limit global warming to well below 2°C and aim for 1.5°C. As part of the ‘Paris Agreement’, countries were committed to bring forward national determined contributions (NDC’s) to reduce their emissions. The NDC’s made at COP21, however, were identifiably too weak and would still put the world on path to reach the doomsday scenario of 3°C warming. As a result, countries agreed to meet every 5 years to ‘ratchet’ up their ambitions but, thanks to COVID-19, it was postponed by a year.
Though the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C seems small, the variation of the environmental consequences faced by even less than 0.5°C of warming can be catastrophic. The outcome is simply and horrifically analogous to ‘the equivalent of 25 holocausts in deaths’ according to David Wallace Wells in The Uninhabitable Earth.
As the first COP of this climate-crucial decade, it is vastly important that COP26 is as successful as possible to get climate change under control. Global net zero, that is, where there is no longer interference on the climate system through the prevention of emitting greenhouse gases, must be secured by mid-century. However, because the climate responds to cumulative emissions, even if this target is reached, we could still irrevocably exceed the 1.5°C threshold. To stay on track to meet this target, carbon emissions must fall by 45% by the end of this decade.
What are the goals of COP26 and is it likely they will be achieved?
The new NDC’s made for COP26 from countries such as the US, UK, EU, plus more than 100 others have already been announced. Unfortunately, the commitments made this year will not add up to secure the 1.5°C future. As opposed to helping the goal of getting carbon emissions down to 45% by the end of the decade, they continue to lead to a 16% rise in emissions. Though at face value this may seem disappointing, “keeping 1.5°C alive” is far from over. A perfect outcome was near impossible given the complexities of climate change as an issue. The main successes of the COP26 summit now lies with there being a clear roadmap for countries to ensure as much progress is made as possible on emission cuts. This can be done by phasing out coal, encouraging renewable investment, curtailing deforestation, and speeding up the switch to electric vehicles. This era of green growth is becoming more and more within reach. The accessibility of renewable energy and other green technology has improved, in some parts of the world being as cheap as fossil fuels. Furthermore, electric vehicle technology has progressed rapidly, with electric car sales growing to over 10% in 2020 compared to 2.5% in 2018 in the UK.
Another goal of COP26 is to mobilise finance. Many of the most punishing climate horrors are hitting those least able to respond and recover: the countries with the lowest GDP’s. As part of Copenhagen COP in 2009, a commitment was made for developed countries to give developing countries $100bn a year in climate finance. This would help cover the cost of both mitigation and adaptation to climate change related issues. Unfortunately, this promise so-far has been broken. A report by the OECD that less than $80bn was provided in 2019 . This COP26, developed countries must deliver on a promise to raise at least $100 billion in climate finance per year. Rich nations are coming close to fulfilling this pledge. Biden has vowed to double the US pledge of climate finance to $11bn a year by 2024.
What else can give us hope?
External pressures are also causing a drive for green growth that could increase the success of COP26 further…
More than 400 international organisations and professionals signed an open letter for politicians to consider the health benefits of climate action ahead of the COP26 summit.
Faith leaders representing the world’s major religions have also joined scientists to call on the international community to raise ambition and step up climate action ahead of COP26.
The biggest analysis of policy preferences ever made was recently published. Known as ‘The Climate Consensus’, the report, published by UK Think Tank, Dermos, demonstrated an “overwhelming consensus” for strong and fair climate action in the UK’s population.
A Youth4Climate summit in Milan occurred on 28th-30th September, prior to the Pre-COP26 event. Around 400 young people presented their proposals for tackling climate change to the Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Italian Minister for Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, COP26 President-Designate, Alok Sharma, and environment ministers from more than 40 countries. As a consequence of the issues raised, Mr. Cingolani announced that he would encourage the government to double Italy’s contribution of climate finance to poor countries by one billion euros.
Whether the commitments made at this COP26 are sufficient in curbing emissions or not, each of us continues to have an impact on preventing the catastrophic loss to biodiversity, to mankind and to our planet that will follow with 3°C of warming. In the words of Greta Thunberg, ‘climate change calls for innovation, cooperation and willpower to make the changes the world needs.’ If you feel the urge to make a change at this COP26 you can find ways to support climate action at the event here. Even one small act of environmental activism can catalyse a greener world.
Ella Grantham
Ella is a recent Zoology graduate from the University of Exeter. She is about to start a masters in Global Environmental Challenges at the University of Bristol researching the impacts of destructive fishery practices. Her passion lies in communication of environmental issues, with a particular interest in marine conservation.